Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify? (The future of podcasting's biggest deal)

Welcome to Podcast Industry News.

In this episode, Will
Joe Rogan leave Spotify?

In 2020, when podcasting was at its
peak boom, when the hype was at its

apex, Spotify signed a three year
exclusive deal with Joe Rogan thought

to be worth about 200 million.

And that deal expires sometime
near the end of 2023 or early 2024.

And Spotify's CEO, Daniel
Ek, is under some pressure.

In her piece for The Verge, Ariel
Shapiro says: "Rogan is still the

best bet the company has ever made.

He remains the top podcaster in the
world, and it's not even close."

But on the other hand, Daniel Ek is
under a lot of pressure to pull back

Spotify's investments in podcasting.

During Spotify's April earnings call,
the CEO admitted he'd overpaid and

overspent on podcasts, and during that
earnings call, Spotify also reported

an net loss of 248 million, and also
admitted that the podcasting part of

their business wasn't yet profitable.

All that being said.

Will Joe Rogan and
Spotify renew their deal?

Ariel Shapiro comments: "If he walks,
or less likely if Spotify chose not to

renew, it would be another massive blow
to the company's podcasting operation."

I think another interesting question
is, if Joe Rogan did walk, is there

another platform with the desire?

and the willingness to pay for it.

For example, in my mind, it's
unlikely that Apple podcasts

would do a deal with Joe Rogan.

I don't think they have the
temperament to work with Rogan.

Plus, uh, they haven't invested
that much in licensing podcasts or

creating their own shows in house.

So, they don't really have the budget or
desire, I think, to work with Joe Rogan.

Really, there's only three
contenders that might be interested.

SiriusXM, Amazon / Audible,
and Google / YouTube.

First up, you have SiriusXM.

They've made huge investments
in personalities in the past.

Look at Howard Stern's massive deal.

And they just updated that deal.

Um, they signed another five year contract
with him in 2020, rumored to be in excess

of a hundred million dollars per year.

So, would they be able to stretch their
budget even further and get Rogan?

It might be possible.

It, it seems unlikely to me, uh, but.

It's a possibility.

Uh, then you have Amazon.

Uh, they have deep pockets and a
growing interest in podcasting.

They acquired Wondery not too long
ago for a reported 300 million.

So they could be serious contenders
if they decide to double down

on their audio investments.

I, I'm skeptical.

A lot of these big companies now
seem to have pulled back from

their interest in podcasting.

There was a lot of hype, especially
when Spotify kind of led the charge

with their 1 billion investment.

And, you know, these
companies are memetic.

They copy each other.

They, they jump on the bandwagon.

But now that Spotify is pulling back,
I think we're going to see some of

these other big companies pull back.

And lastly, you have YouTube.

Joe Rogan could sign
an exclusive with them.

His clips already thrive on there.

And While they haven't paid for
exclusivity in the past, at least

not recently, the potential ad
revenue for both parties might

be too tempting to ignore.

Now, another option is Joe Rogan
could go back to being an independent.

And I, I think if he has a decision
between staying with Spotify, And going

back to being independent, if he wants
more money, I honestly feel like he's

going to get more money from Spotify than
he'd be able to earn as an independent.

I know there are people who
disagree with me on this.

I don't think he was
doing, uh, 200 million.

in three years when he was an independent.

I, I, and I doubt that he would
be able to get that much money.

Um, if he went independent again, Spotify
paid a premium for that licensing deal.

So my guess is that Joe Rogan
wants to stay with Spotify and

CEO Daniel Ek wants to keep him.

So my guess is that they renew
the deal in late 2023, early

2024, and he remains on Spotify.

Now, within that deal, they could
maneuver things a little bit, maybe.

They also start posting
episodes on YouTube.

Maybe they remove the exclusivity
and allow the Joe Rogan

experience back on Apple Podcasts.

Remember before they did the deal.

Joe Rogan wasn't even
available on Spotify.

Uh, it was only available on Apple
Podcasts and the other podcasting apps.

So there's some room to play around
there and if it means more ad

revenue for Spotify and the ability
to make their podcasting division

profitable, maybe they'll do it.

I'm eager to hear your
thoughts on all this.

Will Rogan stay or go?

And what would a new agreement look like?

Let me know.

You can leave a comment or
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That's it for this week.

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